A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The team continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to address. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
Per Opta, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
